Climate Change
Coal Fired Electricity Production
Last year we reported that China was bringing one 400 mw coal burning power plant online every week. The picture has changed. They are now bringing two 400 mw generators online each week. A hundred a year. India promises to build a hundred during the next decade.

Atmospheric Carbon
We reported that airborne carbon dioxide increased at the rate of one percent a year during the 90s, but since the turn of the century had increased to a 3.1 percent annual increase. That promises Jurassic Age carbon dioxide levels within little more than half a century. But only if the rate of increase neither rises nor falls. With the intent of many countries to turn coal into liquid fuel becoming reality in this and other countries, with the feverish degree of catch-up (power plants) being played by emerging economies, there is ample cause to suppose that we will soon create a situation that has not existed on earth for three hundred million years.

From Great Britain:
David Adam, Guardian
“The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer and levels of sea ice in the region now stand at a record low, scientists said last night. Experts said they were “stunned” by the loss of ice, with an area almost twice as big as Britain disappearing in the last week alone. So much ice has melted this summer that the north-west passage across the top of Canada is fully navigable, and observers say the north-east passage along Russia’s Arctic coast could open later this month. If the increased rate of melting continues, the summertime Arctic could be totally free of ice by 2030.

Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University in Denver which released the figures, said: “It’s amazing. It’s simply fallen off a cliff and we’re still losing ice.” The Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since satellite measurements began 30 years ago, and the rate of loss has accelerated sharply since 2002.

Dr Serreze said: “If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children’s lifetimes.”

Polar Bear
On successive days in my daily newspaper the Associated Press reported on the fate of the polar bear, having a tough time now and facing a worse future. They report “As of this week (first week in September) a loss of 250,000 square miles of sea ice,” with drastic effects expected on polar bear populations.

Last December Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne proposed giving the polar bear the designation of ‘threatened’ species, a grade below ‘endangered’. Thus far, Interior has received 600,000 comments on the issue, and the Government Accounting Agency accuses the administration of ignoring climate.

The Hurricane Season
We reported worries on the fate of the Gulf of Campeche oil rigs from hurricane Dean. Turns out Dean lost enough oomph over the Yucatan to do little damage once it regained the water. Now comes Felix, the second category five hurricane of the season, only the sixth named storm of the year. It struck a bit further south, and other than having deadly results for the Moskito Indians didn’t bother much else. On the same day Felix hit the east coast, Henriette banged into Baja California. First recorded event of two hurricanes making landfall on the same day.

We considered discussing the nature of hurricanes here but decided why bother? Wikipedia has a splendid writeup on them. How anyone can speak of ‘dubious science’ after reading something like that is beyond us. Hurricanes draw energy from sea water and it’s a whole lot of energy. Equivalent of several nuclear devices, something like unleashing power equivalent to hundreds of times that generated by the entire world’s power plants. Wikepedia offers interesting reading on this subject.

Oceanic Currents
For another adventure of the mind we recommend reading up on ‘thermohaline’ currents, ‘thermo’ is what you suppose and ‘haline’ relates to dissolved salts in the sea. Seems when surface sea water freezes it leaves the salt behind. What’s left is more dense because its colder and saltier than normal sea water. It sinks into the depths, to be replaced by incoming warmer water..

The result is the polar to polar flow of seas – the sinking water at the poles acts as a plumber’s friend on the deep waters between the poles, pushing the water away from one pole toward the other. And, of course, growing warmer when is passes through the tropics, the water tending to rise nearer the other pole. Add to this the surface circulation caused by trade winds near the equator – a sort of reverse whirlpool exists in the Atlantic centered on the equator. Reverse because the water level at the center is actually higher than surrounding waters. I’m not quite sure how it happens, since the deep currents are not in actual contact with the surface currents, but the deep current flowing northward on the eastern side of the Atlantic grabs a portion of the surface circulation and pushes it north, off the edges of Europe, giving some remarkably northerly areas an equable climate. Then the water gets the thermohaline treatment in the Arctic, returns south again as a deep current off the east coast of the Americas, is swept around Cape Horn and into the Pacific, where it turns north again. Then back to the south, around Africa and back into the Atlantic. I found it fascinating.

The loss of Arctic ice threatens the future of the deep currents and therefore the Gulf Stream. A Columbia University scientists predicts dire results for northern Europe. So far his predictions haven’t worked out – instead of growing colder due to a weakening Gulf Current northern Europe is growing warmer. Western Europe is certainly growing wetter – charges of administrative incompetence are being thrown at the British government for not foreseeing the heavy flooding in England this summer. Ireland, of course, is equally drenched and so are other northern Europe countries nearer the sea.

These events are predicated by climate change. Increased air and water turbulence, increased storms, increased precipitation in at least some parts of the world.

One U.S. scientist, working for the government, made the point that if we suddenly and completely became good little boys and girls there would be no noticeable alteration in the climate alteration process for half a century. That’s how long he says carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, the seas absorbing a portion every day. Beyond that half century build-up, if we didn’t burn any more fossil fuel, things would slowly, very, very slowly, improve until the world reached a new equilibrium of carbon levels between air and water, with the seas releasing at much as it absorbs. The sea purges itself of carbon dioxide by releasing it back to the atmosphere, by collecting it in the mass of organic matter trapped in anoxic areas, and by the formation of carbonates – sea shells which in turn can become limestone or marble.

Acid Seas?
A couple of U. Washington scientists are becoming worried about acidifying the seas with so much carbon dioxide. Water and carbon dioxide form a weak acid – you experience it every time you sip a soft drink. But the faintly acidic nature of rain water carved the Mammoth Caves in Kentucky, didn’t they? They’re pretty big and impressive, aren’t they? On a culinary level, say goodbye to shellfish. Goodbye coral reefs.

This entry was posted on Monday, September 10th, 2007 at 7:40 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.