In one sense, a rather quiet month. Mostly looking over the shoulder at recent events while waiting for the big event in Antarctica, where it is only the equivalent of the northern May. And for the report of thousands of climate scientist on the ice down there trying to figure out what’s going on.
The Decider
“The Bush Administration has engaged in a systematic effort to manipulate climate change science and mislead policy makers and the public about the dangers of global warming,” said the report, which is the result of a 16-month probe by the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. “The White House exerted unusual control over the public statements of federal scientists on climate change issues.”
Not really news, is it? It’s all of a piece with the federal government’s response to Bali and the IPCC report. Obstruct, deny, and make the world safe for SUVs. People in Bali said all is not lost. In just a few months there will be a different administration. Then maybe we can get on with the job.
State’s Rights
On a more positive note, a federal court struck down the opposition to the emission legislation passed in fourteen separate states, California and Oregon among them. That’s the second defeat in a row for the bad guys. Less greenhouse gas, largely by way of extending mileage requirements, will reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It does seem reasonable; burn less gas, produce less carbon dioxide.
The Warming Arctic
Seth Borenstein, an Associated Press writer, looking at what happened up there last summer began his article this way: “An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer, a warning sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point. One even speculated that summer sea ice would be gone in five years,.”
Borenstein noted that Greenland lost 19 billions tons of ice this past season, A senior scientist at the federal Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado is quoted as saying “The Arctic is screaming.” Borenstein concludes his brief report with the following, “So scientists in recent days have been asking themselves these questions: Was the record melt seen all over the Arctic in 2007 a blip amid relentless and steady warming? Or has everything sped up to a new climate cycle that goes beyond the worst case scenarios presented by computer models?
And don’t forget that the loss of sea ice implies the loss of deep oceanic currents, a matter of tremendous consequence.
Brings to mind a favorite thought of my own. Computer modeling relies entirely on historical trends, and are to be treated as nothing more than continuation of those trends. Military thinking, not to be confused with Military Intelligence (which some say is doubtful) is credited with always being prepared for the last war. The Maginot Line in 1940 is a favorite comparison; it would have rendered ineffective a frontal infantry attack, but was useless against an attack by swift moving enemy armored units raising hell in their rear. Computer modeling is unlikely, in the very nature of things, to be effective when new and not previously considered factors emerge.
Springtime in the Rockies
And the not-so-hot news continues with a more local report. At a meeting of the American Geophysical Union Tim Barnett, a researcher at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California said “People talk about a tipping point, but we’ve already been there and done that.”
It was noted that soon there will be no glaciers in Glacier National Park, no spring snowpack in the western mountains, and that snowpacks have declined 20 percent during the past 50 years. Unstated was that most of that loss was probably quite recent.
For a state such as Oregon as reliant as it is on hydro power it’s a bit worrisome. With the Yangzte and Yellow rivers drying up in China, the Ganges and the Bramaputra in Indian, and the Mekong in Indochina, should we perhaps be a little anxious about our own Columbia River?
Relief
The International Red Cross reports disasters increased twenty percent this year over last year. Fifty-six percent of the disasters were weather related according to their report. I’m no great pursuer of disaster, but I certainly do recall the horrid results of the numerous and extremely powerful typhoons that swept ashore on the Asian coast last summer. I credit North Vietnam’s present amiability with the damage suffered by that nation. Now they need friends.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 18th, 2007 at 10:01 am and is filed under Energy Future, Environment. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.