The Energy Crisis
The CEO of General Motors announced at this year’s auto show that he foresees the end of the internal combustion engine, and rather soon at that. He looks for GM to maintain a leading position in the manufacture and distribution of personal vehicles powered by batteries, that to happen as soon as GM can perfect batteries that will provide suitable range. He declared ethanol to be crutch of the near future, something we will need to rely on until those batteries arrive.
Meanwhile, the price of wheat has risen by 250 percent in the last two years, an ethanol event as ethanol is a peak oil event. Other grains are similarly effected. The U.S. Department of Energy, on their web page, foresees a 100 percent diversion of maize, or corn if you prefer, to ethanol production quite soon. There goes the price of milk, bread and eggs, and meat too. Latinos, having not a lot of cash, use corn and beans as a dietary base (the combination forms a complete protein, a necessary dietary substance.) They’ll just have to do without corn, perhaps. Far as I know, beans are not yet threatened as a feed stock for ethanol producers.
U.S. Petroleum Supplies
An interesting analysis appeared on EB. It suggested that petroleum production figures aren’t what to watch; producing countries are discovering the joys of using the stuff. What wants close attention, says the author, is how much export petroleum is available. His graphs show cause for concern. While production is still rising in some countries the quantity available for export in the same country may well be declining. And that’s the part that concerns drivers in the U.S. We depend upon imported oil, and if the stuff isn’t there for import good news about production doesn’t mean much at all.
The Climate Crisis
Crisis? If you believe Goddard Space Institute Director James Hansen, the chap whom the Administration unsuccessfully tried to muzzle the problem is worse than we thought (Never mind what the CBS special on climate change said. While they interviewed Hansen extensively, it must be old footage because it doesn’t reflect his present thinking). Perhaps you remember Al Gore’s projections in “An Inconvenient Truth”, in which he opined that we need to stop building the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere before we reach 550 ppm. That’s twice pre-industrial levels. Al used data from the 90’s when carbon dioxide was building at one percent per year. In this century, the level has become three percent, throwing Al’s timetable badly askew.
Arctic ice is beating a frantic retreat, as are mountain glaciers in all latitudes. With that experience, the common judgement has become we’d best avoid anything beyond 450 ppm. We are presently at nearly 390 ppm, and the number is climbing very quickly these days. Now comes Hansen with a new proposition.
He says the trigger point was 350 ppm. At present levels we may have crossed the threshold into a totally unknown condition with climate having entirely escaped any controls we may now try to impose. In other words, bend way, way over and kiss your nether parts goodbye, ‘cause we’ve had it. That’s one man’s opinion. Not all scientists are of quite that gloomy a state of mind. After all, nobody knows where that threshold is, not even Jimmy Hansen. But I think he’s warning us what we’re playing with here. I’ve spoken of the anoxic event, and should we trigger one we won’t survive.
What Caused Arctic Ice Loss?
A group of Swedish meteorologists says there’s more to the problem than you might think. Surface warming in the Arctic may not be the whole story. The Swedes noted increased temperatures at higher polar altitudes, saying that contributed to the ice loss, that upper level air warming was due to changes in air circulation patterns. Newspapers interpreted that information to indicate that carbon dioxide concentrations were perhaps not to blame. What the newspapers overlooked was what was causing the change in air circulation.
Earth or water warmed by sunlight warms the air immediately over it. Warm air rises, cool air descends. Extremely noticeable sometimes in light aircraft, which can suddenly be bounced alarming distances up or down. Rising air forms a circular pattern due to the earth’s rotation, observable in open country over plowed fields and most readily in desert areas – dust devils. On a large scale, particularly over water where a great deal of evaporation occurs, major storms develop, with air rising rapidly in the center and cooler air from surrounding regions rushing in at great speed into the created vacuum. The role of carbon dioxide is to provide a barrier to energy trying to reflect back into space, guaranteeing increased storm activity. I think we saw that in the western Pacific last summer, with typhoons roaring clear up the coast of China and delivering a devastating blow to North Korea, which I believe to be a most uncommon event. I’ve certainly never heard of such a thing before.
If we listen to or read the weather news, we know that a low pressure situation indicates wind. (Once upon a time in the movies the captain, perhaps Humphrey Bogart, tapped the barometer and said he’s never seen it so low. Time for distracted expressions and menacing music.) That is true globally. Low pressure areas, which are created by warmth and rising air, will be assaulted by cooler air at lower elevations from a considerable distance.
Personally, I think the meteorologists were saying something very different than what the newspapers made of it. Increased warmth stimulates storm activity, which stimulates the movement of air all over the globe. I don’t see any reason to suppose that takes carbon dioxide off the hook.
The Antarctic
It’s turning into summertime down there, early summer. The United Nations sponsored Year of the Ice, which is to run for two years, has had a chance to bring in equipment and scientists to provide some badly needed answers as to what’s going on down there. This is at least partly due to the fact that Arctic warming caught science with its pants down – they were genuinely unaware of what was about to happen.
Early reports, and there is little reason to suppose that they are going to start talking about it until they get their data in and digested, indicate possible problems in West Antarctica. If you read our report on the Antarctic a few months ago, you will recall that West and East Antarctica are very different entities, with the much smaller West Antarctica being a more recent arrival to the continent and displaying very different characteristics. For one thing, a very important thing, the surface of West Antarctica is about a mile below the surface of the sea.
What the scientists are reporting is deep sea currents of a warmer nature are caressing the base of that tremendous mass of ice, two miles and more high. The bottom of that great ice mass is beginning to melt away, with possibly formidable consequences. Those warmed currents may explain the stunning loss of the Larsen-B ice shelf a few years ago, emphasized in “An Inconvenient Truth”, in which ice 70 feet thick over a huge area of the sea completely disappeared from satellite photographs just five weeks apart.
Should the mass of ice over West Antarctica slide or tip into the sea, that will have most serious consequences for those who live or farm near the sea, which would rise a good bit. West Antarctica is about the size of Texas, as is Greenland, and a complete loss of ice in either will cause sea levels to rise over 20 feet, twice as much if both go.
We could go back to Jimmy Hansen’s warning. Maybe we need to get with it.
What To Do
Remember what we said two weeks ago? British scientists have developed a photosynthesis process which can be deposited on surfaces from printing presses. The product is now being produced at a plant in California. I’m awaiting a chance to read a report on the process, hopefully in a journal such as Scientific American.
It is estimated that all of the energy used by humanity can be supplied by the solar energy which can supply a hundred times what we now use. Shingles for topping a roof may disappear, to be replaced by this sort of PV panel, offering a painless escape from fossil fuels. And hopefully a bullet train/light rail/street car transportation system powered by sunlight. And provided Jimmy Hansen set the trigger point a bit too low, perhaps a happier future.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 21st, 2008 at 7:42 am and is filed under Energy Future, Environment. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.