Bits and Pieces on EB last month:
A. “Most analysts continue to maintain that the 19 percent increase in oil prices during the past month is not supported by fundamentals and is largely driven by speculators fleeing the sagging equities markets….

B. . . . . crude is now selling for $40 a barrel or 95 cents a gallon more than it was at this time last year. “

C. “China’s shortage of thermal coal could lead to a serious power shortage this year”

D. “Utilities are increasingly turning to solar thermal power, a comparatively low-tech alternative to photovoltaic panels that convert sunlight directly into electricity. This month, Spanish solar-plant developer Abengoa Solar and Arizona Public Service announced a 280 megawatt solar thermal project in Arizona. By contrast, the world’s largest installations of photovoltaics generate only 20 megawatts of power.”

E. “The growth in the demand for grain by ethanol grain distilleries now exceeds all growth in demand for feed grain in the world.”

F. “As crude-oil prices climb to historic highs, steep gasoline prices and the weak economy are beginning to curb American’s gas-guzzling ways. In the past six weeks, the nation’s gasoline consumption has fallen an average 1.1 percent from year-earlier levels, according to weekly government data. “

G. “In Alberta, at Fort McMurray’s open mines, it takes 2 tons of tar sand, 250 gallons of water and 1.400 cubic feet of natural gas to produce one barrel of synthetic crude, says Peter Wells, director of English research firm Netflex Petroleum Consultants Ltd.”

A Long, Long Way to Go, A Paper by Dave Cohen P to ASPO
I don’t know the guy or anything about him. But if ASPO will sit and listen to him I will too. What he’s talking about is the bubble and ferment all over the place in the solar industry. Fossil fuel shortages haven’t just caught the attention of individuals; the investment community is aware, well aware. As Cohen says, venture companies are springing up in a bubbly, frothy gusher. What are we to make of it? asks Cohen. Well, try a little caution, he says. Which makes a good starter, but . . . .

He begins with some really big numbers. How much energy falls upon the earth from sunlight? 3844 zetajoules a year if you want to know. Me, I don’t know what a zetajoule is. Somebody else decided it was 89,000 terawatts per year. That’s means a bit more to me, but what’s the difference I couldn’t say. But, Cohen says, we only produced 15 terajoules of solar power last year. He grants a lot of significance to that, much more than I do. Solar technology is new and I would expect a slow start. He also says we produced half again as much new power last year from fossil than from sunlight. The way China’s been building power plants I shouldn’t wonder.

But then Cohen gets into high gear, the meat of his story. He’s talking (a) technology, and (b) resource availability. He has some cautionary tales that perhaps we should hear. Not to give up the quest but to steer more wisely.

Cohen begins with thin-film technology, specifically the tellurium based technology as applied by First Solar. To become competitive they must install PVs at 14 percent efficiency at $1.20 per watt of capacity. They are presently producing at $4 per watt at 10 percent efficiency. They’re getting there — commercial efficiencies have increased from by 9 or 10 percent in the past 12 months. But First Solar has critics, who say that they may run out of the stuff to build with. Tellurium is one of the rarest chemicals on earth and may become hard to come by. In fact, the firm used four percent of the world’s supply last year to build 60 mw of power.

Solar Silicon ManufactureCompanies manufacture silicon PVs. Cohen reports on the difficult process of first purifying silicon to an extraordinary degree, then growing crystals from the stuff. Very expensive, very time consuming. It’s how the vast bulk of existing solar panels are constructed. Germany all but lives on the things because their government made it attractive to do so. The thing is, there’s competition for those crystals. TVs, computers, toasters, autos, you name it. Cohen reports silicon crystals have been in short supply for the past four years.

By way of balance, we reported on a possible source of pure silicon laying about in the dumps of fertilizer manufactures. I’d give a pretty penny to know what, if anything, is going on with that stuff. I might expect some fertilizer guys in deep conference with chip makers, but who knows? Those guys ain’t much for talking.

Then we come down to my first and foremost favorite, Nanosolar of California, the people who run solar panels off their printing presses. Nobody told me what’s in their ink until Cohen. He says it’s indium – about as abundant as silver.

The problem with indium is that it went from $70/kg seven years ago to $1000/kg today. What’s happening? LCD monitors and LCD TVs is what happened. If that demand doesn’t slacken, getting enough indium might be tough, and for the next three years at least demand for LCDs isn’t likely to slacken. I take it that Nanosolar doesn’t use an awful lot, but then I don’t supposed LCDs do either. The swap from cathode ray tubes to LCDs is in full swing right now. Both PVs and LCDs have a pretty good life span, except for those who have to have the very biggest TV they can get their mitts on and gotta swap for the new models.

Cohen descends to addressing the issue of a worldwide power distribution network. Well, ‘scuse me, but there are huge areas of the world where they’d probably set dynamite under it. He also discusses electrical storage. But GE appears to be marketing a room sized battery suitable for utility usage. And there is the thought that electrical usage is highest during the day when solar kicks in. I think he exaggerates a bit. And there is the thought that the world doesn’t “need” all the kilowatts it consumes. Street lights are fine, but Las Vegas???

Earlier in this article was a mention of low-tech thermal water heating for steam generation. Been around for at least a generation. All it takes is a bit of space and common materials. There’s also the Australian notion of a wind turbine; build a very, very high tower, build a large solar heat collecting chamber (greenhouse) at the base, and let the draft fly up the chimney to spin the turbines. Except for having to stack bricks in the outback, what’s the problem? It’ll be interesting to see how that turns out. Not something for western Oregon, I’m afraid.

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