What’s in a Name?
Being an independent journalist has its attractions. One is I can promptly respond to a good idea if one happens to shows up. One has. Instead of calling the first column of the month “Peak Oil” I’m going to expand the title to “Energy Watch.” There is too much going on with developments in other energy sources to disregard. Gee, another good idea. How ‘bout “Climate Watch” for the second column?

Coal
An important case in point is coal – the substance which principally fueled the Western industrial revolution for its first couple centuries and is returning to its former eminence in light of the difficulties being experienced in oil business. The Eugene Register-Guard carried a nice piece on coal in its Sunday, November 28 business section. They remarked upon China’s 2.4 billion tons/yr consumption and 1.2 billion tons in the U.S., with estimates in both cases of doubled consumption by 2030. The recent explosion in the Chinese rate of consumption has been widely blamed for the change from 1 to 3.1 percent annual increases in carbon dioxide levels since 2000. Do those projections presuppose a six percent per annum increase?????

The article said a lot may depend upon making coal a “clean” fuel, but noted that for all the talk progress has been essentially nil. It’s still dirty stuff and no proven technology exists to make it otherwise.

Petroleum
Meanwhile, peak oil is certainly in the energy news (though not in commercial media which still imposes a blackout on that kind of reckless talk – except the price of crude and the price of gas.) (The first week in November is showing some huge cracks in their position – the U.S. Government is beginning to sound like peak oilers. A sea change.) Energy Watch, a German based group of scientists believes we peaked last year, and T. Boone Pickens, the Wall Street financier and energy specialist is in full agreement. And the former chief of exploration and production for ARAMCO, the Saudi oil producer. And my Gawd!!! The U.S. Secretary of the Department of Energy said be prepared for difficulties in the procurement of enough petroleum to meet U.S. demand in the future – meaning like next week, next month, or perhaps next year. Even the Great Wall of Denial in the White House is cracking (Did the commercial media mention the sea change at USDOE suggesting your pet vehicle may not be fed?.

We’re going to talk about ASPO now, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. Who are they? They are not sponsored by government or industry, though individual members may carry such associations. They are people deeply involved in the discovery, production and supply of petroleum products. People like T. Boone Pickens or Matt Simon, either of whom has enough money to sink the Titanic. Included are the petroleum geologists who are shouting out warnings louder than anyone. Scholars, journalists, you name it. They’re deeply into oil, and really, really know what they’re talking about. I know many of the names, but I pay more attention than most. Anyway, 525 met in Houston week before last for a ASPO-USA confab. ASPO International had its meeting in Ireland a few weeks earlier.

On Monday, Oct. 29, EB offered a 47 page .pdf supplied by a fellow who was in Houston for the meeting. I downloaded the notes and read them. If you perhaps wondered if ASPO were some sort of unified ideology those notes should dispel that impression. Panelists debated vigorously during the week, pro-nukes arguing with pro-biofuelers and that sort of thing. I found it fascinating – these guys were the really big guys in the energy business, not ivory tower dreamers. I didn’t know, for instance, that the U.S. produces a full half of all the nuclear power in the whole wide world. Or that the fuel from obsolete weaponry was keeping them going (not enough uranium is being produced to supply demand.) Nor had I known that peak natural gas production was realized about six years ago.

My impressions, after reading the report, was predominantly wonder at what even the big guys don’t know. That the end of an era is very, very close came through loud and clear (world oil production has been flat for the past two and a half years), but what is going to happen down the road is in clear dispute among the best, most informed minds. Truly fascinating to see what they see as individuals though, and that there is little agreement on a what the future holds is in itself is worth knowing. One thing they do agree upon is that profound change awaits us and as a nation or a world we are not prepared. A rapidly growing group says peak oil has already arrived, the consensus seems to be no later than a couple years, and even the five year mark is generally considered generous. This writer is not competent to render an opinion on the timing of peak oil, but this writer does feel capable of issuing warnings of probable subsequent consequences.

Alternate Energies
Biofuel
Canola is touted as the golden source of biodiesel that can be grown anywhere at great profit to the farmer and the nation. Is it? According to an article in the Oregonian on October 21, those who have tried growing it have been disappointed. Seems that actual production has proven far less per acre than anticipated, and an OSU professor says at best Oregon farmers could produce only a small fraction of the diesel the state now requires We don’t always agree with commentator “George Seldes” but he always stimulates our juices. His outspokenness is challenging. We share his lack of faith in biofuels, most particularly ethanol. ASPO-USA didn’t have anything good to say about the stuff either, citing the lousy, possibly negative, energy return from its manufacture.

Solar
J.D. Adams tipped us off to what’s happening in Germany – of all places. We reported last month the proposed incursion of Oregon Department Of Transportation into the solar business – not commercially but in answer to the governor’s insistence that Oregon’s administrative units provide a minimum percentage of their own energy requirements through renewable energy. We noted that, according to the Oregonian, European nations are using highway verges as handy places for solar panels (what else are they good for?).Adams, and we thank him most gratefully and heartily, gave us the address of a website (http://getsomesun.votesolar.org) that gave us an splendid overview of what Germany is doing.

That information triggered a memory. On May 5th of this year the Washington Post printed a major article on Germany’s solar developments. I’ve used a combination of the two reports as a basis for these remarks.

Germany, let us recall, has significantly less exposure to the sun than does western Oregon. But ‘getsomesun’ provided views of apartments and businesses, the roofs of which were entirely covered with solar panels. Even more impressive were photos of large solar installations, including one of a 12.5 megawatt solar generator. That’s big, folks. It’s operated by three individuals; the guy tends the operation and his two dogs provide security. .The Post noted the ongoing construction of a 40 MW solar facility. Now that’s truly impressive. Solar is growing up.

The reason behind these amazing developments is that the German government is backing solar as the answer to the energy problem Not only can you ‘grow’ your own energy, but earn some quite nice bucks doing it by selling excess power to the grid at attractive rates. That’s what jump started Germany’s solar establishment. (The goal is a virtually complete abandonment of both fossil fuel and nuclear devices.) Meanwhile, Europeans don’t have to invent an electrified rail transportation system – they already have it. The United States by comparison is seriously backing ethanol – the seriousness gauged by the amount of bucks governments are throwing into that adventure. Ethanol is a better bet than solar? Some think so. Better for the people they favor, anyway. Like the farm vote. Maybe not so good for that sector of the public that eats.

Capital investment is noted in the Post article as the biggest drawback to solar, but we have been noting some extremely promising new developments that offer significant price reductions. As the solar market grows, so does the interest in developing those attractive alternatives. Let us also note that Germany presently has a workforce of 40,000 employed in solar panel manufacturing. In a nation vitally interested in job creation that ought to count for something.

Energy News Notes
Drivers in China – Shanghai for instance (I spent six months there once upon a time, courtesy of the Army Air Corps) can’t necessarily get gas for their cars. Makes it a little tough for them – riding a bike to work is illegal in Shanghai. The problem is the rising price of crude – Chinese gas is price controlled. Refiners can’t get enough for their product to justify production. So they’re not in full production.

North Korea has grounded a portion of their domestic air fleet. Can’t afford to pay for the fuel..

Zimbabwe is experiencing severe energy problems. Stuff is just too expensive for them. That includes all forms of energy, including electricity.

Portland – Again
The Oct. 29th Oregonian carried a major article on streetcars. They aren’t just mumbling platitudes up there, they’re moving. Several neighborhood meetings will soon occur to determine attitudes toward the return of the streetcar. If citizens are receptive, Portland may institute a grid which would place any home within a quarter mile of a streetcar. That’s a good bit less then I have to walk to catch a bus where I live. Which I do all the time. Funding initially seems okay – developers are not opposed to fees for the purpose. Their attitude toward a light rail extension into a rundown area of town is positively heartening. Developers believe delightful opportunities await the arrival of the service.

Be it noted that the ASPO-USA conference in Houston was very much aware of what Portland was doing. The Portland Task Force on Peak Oil Report was discussed at considerable length in a formal conference section and reported upon in the notes previously mentioned The general consensus of ASPO participants agreed that transportation will be hit hard by peak oil, and that an electrical alternative was desperately needed. But ASPO was extremely gloomy about the possibility of getting anything going in time. But maybe Portland will. Go, Portland, go!

A Personal Note
You might not be surprised that I talk about what I write about. You might not be surprised that listeners, including family members, regard me as a kook. Not quite all there. A couple of close relatives have concluded that I suffer from dementia.

Most people are satisfied with the general tenor of what they’re exposed to – the background noise of their milieu (there are a variety of milieu to choose from; what you know – and don’t –depends on which milieu you choose), which includes on average four hours of televiewing per day. Reading a newspaper might give you some notion that something is happening, but the same paper will carry reassurances from supposedly authoritative sources that concern is unwarranted – they’ll take care of things for you. Television viewers haven’t a chance. They’ll be told (maybe six to ten times every hour?) to buy one of those huge glittery trucks or SUVs, with never a thought to keeping them operating a few years down the road. And absolutely no mention of the “Age of Insufficiency” recently alluded to by the U.S. Secretary of Energy.

Thus, since talk of peak oil is commonly considered an exaggeration for possibly heinous reasons – socialist propaganda or something (I’m not kidding – I hear it) – it’s easy to dismiss what is said and to pity the speaker. Human nature is fundamentally conservative – we’re adapted to things as they are and don’t relish the unknown. Dry tanks at the gas station are unimaginable. But that’s what peak oil promises. Most folks understandably don’t want to hear about it.

But there are listeners. The Portland City Council is listening, and more importantly being a model for the nation if not the world. There are good and decent politicians all up and down the line, and they listen. The problem with politics is that it does reflect the tone of the populous – a politician not in tune with his constituents isn’t going to make it. But in my experience they will listen and they will remember, and they may do something when they judge what’s needed is politically possible. I think it is possible to influence newspaper reporters and editors as well, on the same basis. They cannot offend their readers, but perhaps they can edge into previously unapproachable areas of discussion.

So what I’m saying: Don’t let the rotten fruit headed for your head keep you from discussing the situation. I’m not telling you to agree with what you read in this column, just don’t be afraid to talk about things, whatever your beliefs. Only, please, keep it a little more impersonal than is frequently the case. Ideas are better presented without obloquy. More effectively, too.

Bulletin:
Crude hit $96.25 on the spot market on Friday, Nov. 2 (Going up a buck or so a day. But it couldn’t possibly hit $100. I’ve been told that by Very Important Persons.). Same day that the Dow fell 362 points. And it was announced that foreclosures have doubled nationally. Welcome to the rest of the 21st century. Oh, yeah. The Chinese government increased the price of gas by ten percent. According to the Chinese press, people don’t like that at all, though they appreciate the availability of gasoline.

Bulletin! Bulletin! Bulletin!
The Parade Magazine, the tabloid that shows up in the Sunday paper and upon which one Bill O’Reilly serves as editor (you watch Fox News? The name may seem familiar in that case) is almost always not worth the bother of opening. But on Sunday, November 4th, their major piece was on a pressing urgency in restoring some sort of rail service in the U.S. They noted that the AMTRAK budget is the same as twenty years ago, but a buck ain’t the same anymore. O-STAR and Parade Magazine agree on something???? My stars and garters, The world is shifting.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 5th, 2007 at 7:38 am and is filed under Energy Future, Environment, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.