I’m supposed to do energy reporting here. I do the best I can but I find myself frequently in an odd position. I find myself issuing warnings that exceed the published concerns of both government and science. Who am I to be doing such things?

Last December I published here the piece on a “Worst Case Scenario,” in which I tried to give some idea of what it might be like if all the polar ice melted. That such a thing was quite possible I was certain. And it was certain that if we persist in aggravating the warming trend it might happen again, relatively soon. Comes now a group of prominent scientists, with Dr. James Hanson as spokesperson, to state clearly that sea levels will rise many times over the estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC0. Worse even than that, the Australian documentary “Crude” (www.abc.net.au/science/crude/) says we could indeed cause the complete meltdown of polar ice, an event that is not at all unknown in geological history.

We said that at the rate we are aggravating global warming through increased carbon emissions we could trigger the anoxic oceanic event within an easily foreseeable time. Nobody else is saying quite that yet. On what do we base that statement?

One factor is the measurement by the Global Carbon Project of the rate of worldwide carbon exhausts into the atmosphere. (You can get a great deal of information about the organization and their procedures very quickly by asking for it on the web.) Carbon dioxide measurements are being taken worldwide by a global web of observers, meeting careful criteria for procedure and accuracy. I came away from there feeling confident of their information about present rates of carbon emissions. Looking at worldwide conditions, China has just pushed the U.S. into the number two spot as chief contributor of carbon pollution and shows no sign whatsoever of abating their ever increasing consumption of coal and petroleum – assuming that ever increasing amounts of petroleum can be accessed.

What of the other part – those “triggers” that scientists speak of? For many months I have assiduously pursued the question of peak oil and I know who the main men are and what they are talking about. The names mentioned in that regard by the producers of ‘Crude” (www.abc.net.au/science/crude/ ) were of the best – Colin Campbell is a petroleum geologist and retired as vice president of BP and seems to be the worldwide leader of ASPO. Kenneth Deffeyes worked for Shell, was a protege of M. King Hubbert and perfected his means of predicting oil field production. Lord Oxburgh was chief executive officer of Shell U.K. So what of the rest, oceanographers, paleontologists and geologists?

In the documentary Dr. Lee Kump of Penn State takes you to anoxic places and shows you exactly what they look like and explains why if you go there the place might kill you. Anoxia is certain death for oxygen breathing critters, unless you’re wearing a diving suit complete with breathing equipment.. Geologist Hugh Jenkins of Oxford is the chap who shows you evidence of a previous anoxic event that occurred on a worldwide scale. It was Dr. Lee Kump again, an “Earth Systems” scientist, who explained how oceanic currents develop and what can stop them altogether – a necessary ingredient for an anoxic event. He noted the weakening of the Gulf current, and noted its recent cessation for a couple of weeks.

I’ve looked up the pedigree of Dr. Derren Grocke of McMasters University in Hamilton, Ontario on the web. I was impressed by it and by his demonstration of how carbon dioxide levels can be measured from previous oceanic anoxic events. He is one smart cookie who does lots of amazing stuff (his research has refined the time sequences of past geologic ages), and his demonstration was convincing to me. I am not one of his peers and am in no way qualified to pass judgement upon his statements, but that doesn’t mean I can’t use my own good judgement to form my own conclusions.

It’s Darren Grocke who says in the documentary “Crude,” that carbon dioxide levels four to five times pre-industrial pulled the trigger on anoxic events. Does he really know that? I believe he does.

But I am just a journeyman, as I assume you are. It is up to the peers of Dr. Grocke to pass judgement on his statements (and not, incidently, the White House or the American Enterprise Institute). I may look further into the matter, but I’ll have to become more acquainted with paleontology (do-able, but I groan) and Grocke’s methodology to get a handle on the literature.

Meanwhile, I am personally frightened for the youngsters. We could pull the trigger very, very soon (once that trigger is pulled the rest happens – no way to stop it) . I didn’t dream it up. It’s based on what I’m hearing from people who know a good bit more than I. I’m waiting for people with more impressive credentials to consider the implications of present and probable future rates of carbon emissions and the findings of paleontologists regarding previous anoxic events, particularly the amount of carbon in the atmosphere necessary to trigger an event..

Note: I traveled over to the U. Of O. Library, looked at what they had on ‘earth systems.’ Looked to me like they were texts for graduate school geologists. I’d have to start way, way back, take the prerequisites and polish up my math most assiduously to be able to read those texts. I’m getting a little old for that. Maybe I can find a popular science type of volume to ease my mind, if I can think how to express the question to amazon.com or other bookseller. I don’t mean to diss the many booksellers around here, but what I’m asking for is pretty special and I’d be surprised to come across it locally. Maybe I’ll try the university book store. If there is a suggestion from a reader out there, I’d hold your memory sacred in return for some help on this – either the conditions existing during an anoxic event or the science establishing the trigger points.

Be it also noted that I now have the title to a promising book on the measurement of carbon dioxide during past geological periods – the area in which Darren Grocke works. It’s called “Vegetation and the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle, The First 400 Million Years”, edited by Beerling, D.J., and published by Cambridge University in 2001. Amazon.com (and others) will sell it to you for $210.00, but the U. Of O. has a copy which I’m going to go over and check out very soon. It appears to be readable even by someone like myself.

This entry was posted on Monday, July 16th, 2007 at 6:00 am and is filed under Energy Future, Environment. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.