Peak Oil
The Dinner Table
Ethanol is alcohol, it’s the stuff that gives booze its kick. It’s the stuff that is becoming popular as a gasoline additive. People are invited to use gasahol as a virtuous move. Ethanol is made from things which are fermentable. Unhappily, those things are usually foodstuffs.

Because of the worldwide exhaustion of maize supplies, a favored ingredient of ethanol producers (along with sugar cane) the price of tortillas has jumped 30 percent in three weeks in Mexico, one of the nations whose citizens experience low family incomes. The basic Mexican diet is tortillas and beans, a combination that provides among other things a complete protein.

Causing hunger in third world countries is but one of the unintended consequences of our way of life and the resultant peak oil situation. You will likely see increases in the prices of your soft drinks, bourbon and gasoline soon.
Railroads

I can’t be saying www.energybulletin.net all the time, so beginning now I’m going to refer to it as EB. EB published on 24 Dec. a report on a problem the U.S. railroad sector is experiencing. Seems after the big runup in oil prices a lot of shippers would switch to railroads if they could. Problem: the present system is reaching and in some areas has reached capacity. The railroads would expand their capabilities but are having serious problems in obtaining necessary permissions. Too bad. The railroads need at least as much consideration at this point as highway proponents. With peak oil about to become an overwhelming concern, we need to place our bets on the most efficient systems we can find.

Natural Gas Supplies
On the 2nd of Jan., EB published a couple of reports that caught my eye. First, from the Dow Jones News wires, Canada is reducing the amount of natural gas shipped to the U.S.. Oil sand production coupled with the inability to increase production is behind the move.

Moscow has taken a serious look at exports of natural gas to the U.S. I’m not sure where the LPG slated for arrival in Coos Bay was to come from, but if it was Siberia that deal could well fall through

2006 Petroleum Consumption
Oil and Gas Journal estimated that worldwide crude and condensate production increased by 0.18 percent in 2006. That compares with the 2 percent increase that has been normal in recent years. One is warned not to read ‘peak oil’ into it. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. ASPO-USA expects only a moderate total petroleum increase over the next few years. There are political, geological and economic factors at work here.

There was a mixed reaction to higher prices during the year. Non-OECD nations increased imports by 3.8 percent, while OECD nation imports declined by 1.3 percent. Supports the notion that in wealthy countries at least, price and demand are related. In the U.S., a warm winter reduced heating oil demand, while there was some reduction in gasoline consumption.

There was speculation that turmoil in the middle-east could terminate exports from that area. The U.S. would be negatively affected but Europe more so, at least to some extent. Europe has never been as oil dependent as we are. Call it simulated peak oil.

Meanwhile, oil exploration and production costs have risen so rapidly as to put a serious damper on future oil field development.

Climate Change
The Daily Astorian
EB published on 12/27 a highly commendatory piece on the Daily Astorian – actually, on a whole group of newspapers under common ownership that pooled their resources to report, in three parts published over several months, the impact global warming is having on Oregon and on what to expect in the future. I’ve looked at the reports – each is presented in three consecutive issues, and discuss things Oregonians are involved in – fishing, farming and that sort of thing. All three articles can be accessed via www.daily astorian.com, and downloaded in PDF form.

A Brand New Atlantis
On the same date EB announced the first entire entity to disappear under the waves. Lohachara Island, in India’s part of the Sundabans where the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers empty into the Bay of Bengal had the doubtful honor of being the first claimed by rising seas.

EB’s Annual Assessment Report
A great biggie from EB. It’s their annual assessment of last year’s energy events. ‘Twas a busy year. It’s written by Tom Whipple, perhaps the pre-eminent journalist on environmental affairs. I’ve noted his splendid pieces in various newspapers for some time. Didn’t realize he was a main man at EB.

Hurricanes
Global warming is blamed for the awesome drought plaguing Africa. Dust storms blowing out over the Atlantic are held responsible for suppressing the formation of hurricanes during 2006.

China and the Air
China, continuing its charge toward becoming the world’s number one emitter of carbon dioxide, has 500 additional coal fired power plants on the planning board to supplement the 2000 it already has. At the same time, their government has at last noticed that there is a downside to the plan. Chinese President Hu Jintao has recently called for intensified efforts to save energy by using price, tax and other financial measures in an effort to cut energy consumption substantially.

Money, Money, Money
The falling U.S. dollar, victim of the Bush Administration’s unfunded liabilities, has turned many traders away from the dollar. It is no longer the almighty dollar. If you have to ask the price of foreign travel these days you probably can’t afford it..

Dorian Gray, or the Changing Picture
Four bills, intending to do something about the global warming crisis, are being introduced into our new and very different Congress. New committee alignments are being fashioned to ensure full consideration of legislative proposals, as opposed to having them blocked in committee.

Science
The scientists tending the doomsday clock have moved the dial closer to midnight, declaring climate change to be at par with nuclear conflict as the potential ultimate error of mankind. That moves climate change well out in front of stuff like peak oil, terrorism, Iraq or any of the other real or imagined threats we’ve focused on in this country for the past six years.

The Administration, probably irked by the insistence of NASA scientists that climate change is a problem, is sharply reducing funding for the agency. Funding for the agency has declined by30 percent over the past six years with no relief is in sight. Just when we most need more reliable weather predictions.

Meanwhile, NOAA is withdrawing its December estimate of 2.6 to 6 percent greater carbon emissions for 2006 over 2005. Says the report was premature and only an estimate anyway. Whatever, guys. But the remarkably sharp increases in carbon emissions during the past half decade have trashed all earlier predictions on ‘when’ disaster might strike. The presumptions in all cases were for far more modest, if any, increases in carbon levels in the atmosphere.

Transportation
And, finally, a thought that might make some happy and others go berserk. A report noted in EB has been issued that says that adopting a public transportation system would result in a saving of $6200/yr for every American family. In one respect, constructing such a system would be easy – rights of way are freely available on already graded roadways. Perhaps a railroading engineer – the design kind, not the driver kind, could work up some cost estimates on light rail and bullet train configurations. Lord! What we could have! Fast, frequent, comfortable, quiet, reliable, inexpensive transport from here to there. How about Portland to New York or Washington during the daylight hours of one day in expansive comfort and without the threat of strip searches. Makes my mouth fair water, matey.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 22nd, 2007 at 9:36 am and is filed under Energy Future, Environment, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.