Comments on: Peak Oil: An alternative perspective http://blog.onwardoregon.org/peak-oil-an-alternative-perspective/ Here are snippets from the three most-recent postings. Click an article title below to read more. Wed, 13 Feb 2008 02:40:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike http://blog.onwardoregon.org/peak-oil-an-alternative-perspective/comment-page-1/#comment-12098 Mike Thu, 02 Nov 2006 06:56:06 +0000 http://blog.onwardoregon.org/peak-oil-an-alternative-perspective/#comment-12098 The view of the impact of Peak Oil is extremely narrow when thought of only as the gasoline we put in our tanks. That barrel of oil is responsible for so much more than gasoline. How much do you depend on plastic in your life? Most of the plastic in this world is petroleum based. How about paints, rubbers, and many, many other of the products we use in our everyday lives. All petroleum based products will become more scarce and more expensive as the price point representing the balance of supply and demand increases as oil reserves diminish (and extraction costs increase). Finding non-petroleum alternatives to all these products sufficient to approach our current appetite is highly unlikely. Alternatives will reduce the overall impact, but it is hard to imagine not having to scale back our consumption considerably. I must disagree with the limited bandwidth comment regarding affecting change in the environment. Increasing concern and action by more people will make issues more likely to be taken seriously. I do agree that prioritization is very important, and well thought out action is needed to make progress. We cannot have a din of concern and useless action and expect much progress. The affects of Peak Oil (and many other issues) pale when compared to the urgency of dealing with global warming. Fortunately, many of the steps we need to take to reduce the impact of Peak Oil also contribute to solving the problem of Global Warming. Killing two birds with one stone, now that's smart. Think globally, ... The view of the impact of Peak Oil is extremely narrow when thought of only as the gasoline we put in our tanks. That barrel of oil is responsible for so much more than gasoline. How much do you depend on plastic in your life? Most of the plastic in this world is petroleum based. How about paints, rubbers, and many, many other of the products we use in our everyday lives. All petroleum based products will become more scarce and more expensive as the price point representing the balance of supply and demand increases as oil reserves diminish (and extraction costs increase). Finding non-petroleum alternatives to all these products sufficient to approach our current appetite is highly unlikely. Alternatives will reduce the overall impact, but it is hard to imagine not having to scale back our consumption considerably.

I must disagree with the limited bandwidth comment regarding affecting change in the environment. Increasing concern and action by more people will make issues more likely to be taken seriously. I do agree that prioritization is very important, and well thought out action is needed to make progress. We cannot have a din of concern and useless action and expect much progress.

The affects of Peak Oil (and many other issues) pale when compared to the urgency of dealing with global warming. Fortunately, many of the steps we need to take to reduce the impact of Peak Oil also contribute to solving the problem of Global Warming. Killing two birds with one stone, now that’s smart.

Think globally, …

]]> By: Ralph http://blog.onwardoregon.org/peak-oil-an-alternative-perspective/comment-page-1/#comment-4740 Ralph Tue, 30 May 2006 00:37:45 +0000 http://blog.onwardoregon.org/peak-oil-an-alternative-perspective/#comment-4740 This is general information to fill in the uncertainties that seem to show up in comments about peak oil. Peak oil is when a location or country ceases to export and becomes an importer. It is a combination of both increased usage and decreasing local supply. The US peaked around 1970 and California, third largest oil producing State, is closing entire oil fields as they run dry, witness Bakersfield and Taft. Texas and Louisiana are both closing down entire fields, too. We are down to producing 3% of our oil needs since 1970, when the US production peaked. Lybia also peaked in 1970. Iran peaked in 1974. Romania peaked in 1976. Brunei peaked in 1979. Peru peaked in 1982. Cameroon peaked in 1985. Indonesia peaked in 1997, so did Trinidad. A total of 51 oil producing countries have already peaked (and production beyond that point is steadily decreasing as the world’s use of oil steadily increases). Saudi Arabia claims to have enough so they won’t hit their oil peak until 2011 Their largest field, Ghawar, discovered in 1948, was claimed to have 87 BILLION barrels of oil. In the early ‘70s the oil companies ( Exxon, Chevron, Texaco, and Mobile) estimated 60 Billion barrels in Ghawar field. Since then Ghawar has pumped out 55 billion barrels of crude (by the records). Get this: 60 minus 55 means there is only 5 billion remaining. That would sustain global usage for three weeks. They quietly pump 7 million gallons of sea water into the Gahwar field each day to sustain pumping pressure. Oil may only be a fraction of available energy, but given the internal combustion engine, we will not be free of the problem until our primary motive energy source changes radically. This is general information to fill in the uncertainties that seem to show up in comments about peak oil.

Peak oil is when a location or country ceases to export and becomes an importer. It is a combination of both increased usage and decreasing local supply.
The US peaked around 1970 and California, third largest oil producing State, is closing entire oil fields as they run dry, witness Bakersfield and Taft. Texas and Louisiana are both closing down entire fields, too. We are down to producing 3% of our oil needs since 1970, when the US production peaked.

Lybia also peaked in 1970. Iran peaked in 1974. Romania peaked in 1976. Brunei peaked in 1979. Peru peaked in 1982. Cameroon peaked in 1985. Indonesia peaked in 1997, so did Trinidad. A total of 51 oil producing countries have already peaked (and production beyond that point is steadily decreasing as the world’s use of oil steadily increases).

Saudi Arabia claims to have enough so they won’t hit their oil peak until 2011 Their largest field, Ghawar, discovered in 1948, was claimed to have 87 BILLION barrels of oil. In the early ‘70s the oil companies ( Exxon, Chevron, Texaco, and Mobile) estimated 60 Billion barrels in Ghawar field. Since then Ghawar has pumped out 55 billion barrels of crude (by the records). Get this:
60 minus 55 means there is only 5 billion remaining. That would sustain global usage for three weeks. They quietly pump 7 million gallons of sea water into the Gahwar field each day to sustain pumping pressure.

Oil may only be a fraction of available energy, but given the internal combustion engine, we will not be free of the problem until our primary motive energy source changes radically.

]]> By: Lloyd Gordon http://blog.onwardoregon.org/peak-oil-an-alternative-perspective/comment-page-1/#comment-2626 Lloyd Gordon Mon, 20 Mar 2006 15:52:29 +0000 http://blog.onwardoregon.org/peak-oil-an-alternative-perspective/#comment-2626 In denfense of the Club of Rome report, published in the mid 1970s, they did not predict when peak petroleum production would occur, but when peak proven reserves of petroleum would occur. Oil geologists had perfected their tools to a very high degree by the 1960s, and the discovery of new oil fields proceeded briskly indeed until sometime in the 1960s. Since then discoveries have become fewer and fewer with each passing year. The rate of oil discovery has formed a curve remarkably similar to the bell curve hyipothetized by M. King Hubbert in the 1950s, and the shape of the curve was sufficiently evident by the time the Club of Rome report was written to predict a peak of proven reserves approxmately at the turn of the century. I don't have exact information when that was, but in 1998 the U.S. Dept. of Energy predicted that event with a couple of years. As for the effects of demand getting ahead of petroleum, I rather think that American oil men have been perfectly aware of the petroleum situation all along -- how could they not be? I suggest that steps were taken, and are being taken, by petroleum companies and national governments to strategically position themselves in adventageous positions. I suggest that the underlying reason for our occupation of Iraq was geopolitical -- Iraq is ideally located to influence the entire petroleum production of the area. The large oil fields are all in Iraq or very close to the borders of Iraq. That our present administration of oil men is less than candid I think hardly surprising. Oil company executives and their supporters are, to use somebody else's term, notoriously closed-mouthed. In denfense of the Club of Rome report, published in the mid 1970s, they did not predict when peak petroleum production would occur, but when peak proven reserves of petroleum would occur. Oil geologists had perfected their tools to a very high degree by the 1960s, and the discovery of new oil fields proceeded briskly indeed until sometime in the 1960s. Since then discoveries have become fewer and fewer with each passing year. The rate of oil discovery has formed a curve remarkably similar to the bell curve hyipothetized by M. King Hubbert in the 1950s, and the shape of the curve was sufficiently evident by the time the Club of Rome report was written to predict a peak of proven reserves approxmately at the turn of the century. I don’t have exact information when that was, but in 1998 the U.S. Dept. of Energy predicted that event with a couple of years.

As for the effects of demand getting ahead of petroleum, I rather think that American oil men have been perfectly aware of the petroleum situation all along — how could they not be? I suggest that steps were taken, and are being taken, by petroleum companies and national governments to strategically position themselves in adventageous positions. I suggest that the underlying reason for our occupation of Iraq was geopolitical — Iraq is ideally located to influence the entire petroleum production of the area. The large oil fields are all in Iraq or very close to the borders of Iraq. That our present administration of oil men is less than candid I think hardly surprising. Oil company executives and their supporters are, to use somebody else’s term, notoriously closed-mouthed.

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