Are we there yet? I dunno. But this story isn’t about peak oil. Not exactly…though that has to do with it.

I don’t know if the concern this year over gasoline stocks have reached you. If so, you probably heard about 205 million barrels (earlier in the year) or 192 million barrels (recently) of gasoline stocks. But what does that mean? The numbers themselves don’t tell you much.

Reported stock includes gasoline that the customer can’t have and therein lies the rub. Refineries are frequently located in seaports, where crude is accepted from overseas, refined, and distributed by pipeline, barge, or whatever. There is a number the government calls “Minimum Operating Level” (MOL) – that’s the portion in transit. You pretty much have to keep a gasoline pipeline full of gasoline. You let air in there and you’re not only asking for trouble but very likely going to get it. Like “BOOM”.

So what’s the number? Once upon a time the Department of Energy readily told you what it thought the number was – wouldn’t necessarily be exact but an estimate is better than nothing. What we’re concerned about is the amount available to the driver, right?

In 2004 the MOL was 185 million barrels. If it drops to that level there is nothing for the driver.. After 2004 they stopped supplying the number to the interested public. They didn’t say why. You and I are free to speculate upon the reason. The government knows the number. The oil companies certainly know – it’s their number. Wall Street and their corporate clients know – they’re the ones who worry (oil companies don’t – they make lots of money in an oil tight situation).. But should the rest of us know? I can see justification for not belaboring the public with that sort of stuff. By and large I don’t think the public wants to know.

Okay, this is where the fun part comes. Subtract MOL from in-stock figures provided on a weekly basis from www.eia.doe.gov to find out how much is available to drivers that week. Subtracting 184 from the 192 mentioned above leaves 8 million barrels of gasoline actually available. That’s not a per day or per week figure. It’s simply average amount in the hands of gasoline distributors and retailers during the past week. We use nearly 10 million barrels per day (9.6 last I heard).

That’s less than a one day supply of gasoline, friends. That’s what has some people gnawing their fingernails to the elbow on a regular basis. What if everybody spooked and tried to fill their gas tanks all at once? Not enough available for that. How long it would take to get everybody a full tank? Your guess is as good as mine.

When oil is tight how much would it take to upset the apple cart? Katrina provided a clue – Gulf refineries went offline for a while a couple years ago and the price of gasoline went through the roof. Refineries had a bad patch last spring and the tightness (and gas prices) at that time could be blamed on that. Refineries are doing fine right now but we’re still mighty tight on the supply end. What’s going on? Could there actually be a very tight oil market, with nowhere to go to find additional supplies?

We knew, back in the 1970s, that this day was coming. Recall that U.S. production peaked in 1970 and we were forced to turn to foreign suppliers. But if the world’s leading oil producer, which was the U.S. was prior to 1970, can run out, what’s to keep the rest of the world from running out? People pushing merchandise in certain industries (SUV suppliers perhaps?) wouldn’t want you thinking about that so they insist that the idea is nonsense.

Let’s go back to the situation of 30 years ago. Jimmy Carter, whose intelligence and perception is frequently forgotten, said we gotta start learning to live with less. His political opponents said stuff and nonsense, it’s Morning in America. We liked hearing that and haven’t worried about being careful since then. And here we are now with something like half our private vehicles consisting of SUVs.

When will peak oil hit? Nobody really knows. Perhaps it already has — you wouldn’t know if it had. It takes a little time for the realization to hit. The price of crude oil hit record highs when Humberto hit the Gulf Coast a few days ago, but then subsided again when the refineries didn’t suffer major damage.

Watching government response to the pending difficulties can be fascinating. The latest hot news from planners is that Oregon is a contest winner. In twenty or thirty years we shall have a new bridge on I-5 over the Columbia River. That’s to handle the enormous increase in heavy trucks that we shall experience in the interim. So say the planners. What, they are locked in a tall tower with no windows and people won’t tell them anything?

I have spoken to people presumably in a position to influence transportation in Eugene. They dismiss the notion of an alternate transportation system. “People won’t stand for that,” I’m told. Yeah, I reply, but people are turning to buses and bicycles (street cars are not available) in truly impressive numbers. Doesn’t matter, apparently. I guess those people don’t count.

You may recall that very recently Detroit automakers opposed increased mileage standards (CAFÉ) for their products. Assisted suicide said one commentator when John Dingall blocked the legislation in the House. We are to prepare the Interstate system for the immense fleets yet to come instead. I’ve heard that something like a billion dollars of I-5 improvement is scheduled for Eugene alone.

To what purpose if people (and those trucks) can’t afford to drive?

This entry was posted on Monday, September 17th, 2007 at 10:48 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.